Friday 20 February 2015

The 87th Academy Awards; Predictions and Comments

Sunday night is the 2015 Academy Awards, so it's time to weigh in on what I think are the most deserving nominees.  Of course, the deserving don't always win, so I will also weight in on who/what I think will actually win.....
------------------


Best Picture
 
American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Selma
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash


What will win:  Boyhood
What should win:  The Grand Budapest Hotel

Sadly missing from this list are what I thought were the two best movies of the year: “Blue Ruin” and “Wild”. I also think “Nightcrawler” deserved a nomination. But of those on the list there are some very good films – I especially enjoyed “The Grand Budapest Hotel”, “American Sniper” and “Whiplash”. But bet the farm on “Boyhood” taking the big prize. Too much hype for anything else to happen, even though it really is a very so-so movie. If it wasn't for the 12 year production, I don't think it would even have been a blip on the Academy's radar.


Best Director
Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman
Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher
Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game

Who will win - Richard Linklater - Boyhood
Who should win - Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman

For the same reason, count on Richard Linklater, the brains and driving force for “Boyhood”. Man, I wish I liked this movie more. It will win, and I feel it just isn't good enough to deserve it. Though I will love it if Alejandro González Iñárritu wins for Birdman – it was totally unique and adventurous, even if it wasn't always firing on all cylinders.


Best Actor
Steve Carell – Foxcatcher as John du Pont
Bradley Cooper – American Sniper as Chris Kyle
Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game as Alan Turing
Michael Keaton – Birdman as Riggan Thomson
Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything as Stephen Hawking

Who will win - Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
Who should win - Redmayne, Cumberbatch or Keaton – all would deserve it

I think Cumberbatch, Redmayne and Keaton all deserve the award. If you stuck a gun in my face and asked what I thought was the “best” performance, the most unique and impossible for anyone else to duplicate, I would go with Keaton. But I believe Eddie Redmayne will win, and he will deserve it too. Any of these three men would deserve it.


Best Actress

Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night as Sandra Bya
Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything as Jane Hawking
Julianne Moore – Still Alice as Dr. Alice Howland
Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl as Amy Elliott-Dunne
Reese Witherspoon – Wild as Cheryl Strayed

Who will win - Julianne Moore – Still Alice
Who should win - Reese Witherspoon – Wild


When the nominees were announced I thought that Reese Witherspoon would win, and I personally will be rooting hard for it to happen - it was a career performance from her. But since Julianne Moore won both the Golden Globe and the SAG Award, it seems inevitable that she will get the big prize. A great performance for sure, but I still think Witherspoon's was the better one.


Best Supporting Actor:

Robert Duvall – The Judge as Judge Joseph Palmer
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood as Mason Evans, Sr.
Edward Norton – Birdman as Mike Shiner
Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher as Dave Schultz
J. K. Simmons – Whiplash as Terence Fletcher

Who will win - J. K. Simmons – Whiplash
Who should win - J. K. Simmons – Whiplash

Simmons has won both the Golden Globe and the SAG Award for “Whiplash”, so it seems a safe bet that he'll take the prize. And he'll deserve it too – he was outstanding.  Probably the safest bet of all the categories.



Best Supporting Actress

Patricia Arquette – Boyhood as Olivia Evans
Laura Dern – Wild as Barbara "Bobbi" Grey
Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game as Joan Clarke
Emma Stone – Birdman as Sam Thomson
Meryl Streep – Into the Woods as The Witch

Who will win - Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
Who should win - Emma Stone – Birdman

Emma Stone absolutely should win. End of story. Patricia Arquette absolutely will win. End of story. It will be a crime.


Best Original Screenplay

Birdman – Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo
Boyhood – Richard Linklater
Foxcatcher – E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman
The Grand Budapest Hotel – Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness
Nightcrawler – Dan Gilroy

Who will win - Boyhood – Richard Linklater
Who should win - Birdman – Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr. and Armando Bo


Again, I have to predict that “Boyhood” will win. Call “The Grand Budapest Hotel” the dark horse, and I would love to see “Birdman” win this. Of the big ones this is the one I have the most doubt about...... but the “Boyhood” love-in will probably prevail.  Very nice to see "Nightcrawler" recognized here.


Best Adapted Screenplay

American Sniper – Jason Hall from American Sniper by Chris Kyle, Scott McEwen and Jim DeFelice
The Imitation Game – Graham Moore from Alan Turing: The Enigma by Andrew Hodges
Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson from Inherent Vice by Thomas Pynchon
The Theory of Everything – Anthony McCarten from Travelling to Infinity: My Life with Stephen by Jane Wilde Hawking
Whiplash – Damien Chazelle from his short film of the same name

Who will win - American Sniper – Jason Hall from American Sniper by Chris Kyle, Scott McEwen and Jim DeFelice
Who should win - American Sniper – Jason Hall from American Sniper by Chris Kyle, Scott McEwen and Jim DeFelice


I think this one really is a a crapshoot; the only one I would say out of hand has no chance is “Inherent Vice”. So I will pick “American Sniper”, as adapting that book to a screenplay was a major achievement.


Best Animated Feature Film

Big Hero 6
The Boxtrolls
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Song of the Sea
The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

What will win:  How to Train Your Dragon 2
What should win:  Big Hero 6

In a pretty weak category, "Dragon" has to be considered the favorite.  But I just can't get behind a sequel winning a Best Picture award.  I wouldn't even have voted for "The Godfather Part 2" for 1974......


Best Documentary

Citizenfour
Finding Vivian Maier
Last Days in Vietnam
The Salt of the Earth
Virunga

What will win:  Citizenfour
What should win:  Citizenfour

...but don't count any of them out.  The Academy likes to have surprise winners in this category more than any other.

No comments:

Post a Comment